Budgeting, Planning & Forecasting

Budgeting, Planning & Forecasting

February 23, 2011

Telecom Pragmatics: Nearly $4 Billion Worldwide OTN Cross-Connect Opportunity Present For Next Ten Years

Based on a recent Telecom Pragmatics report, the total revenues from 2011 to 2020 for the worldwide OTN cross-connect market is estimated to be close to $3.8 billion. In 2017, sales are expected to peak at close to $700 million. The report also suggests that the businesses of both Tellabs and Ciena when combined will represent 75 percent of the market in 2015.

The study reveals that the key question is to what extent OTN switching will be transitional and how long will it take before networks become all-IP architectures for everything? Since the industry generally underestimates the life of such technologies and services, it is hardly out of the question that OTN networks will be in use well beyond the forecasted period.

The report goes on to state that the first true OTN battleground will be in Asia, most probably in China, in which Huawei (News - Alert) will get an early boost. While Alcatel-Lucent is almost certain to remain in the OTN game, the market generally views it as more of router company now and not as big a transport or cross-connect vendor. Chances are that there will be other players that may get a piece of the market, and that includes Ericsson (News - Alert).

In a related story on TMCnet, Telecom Pragmatics reported that there appears to be cracks at the top of the Verizon (News - Alert) Wireless management over whether its full plans for 4G are guaranteed. In particular the thinking seems to be is that LTE can be done in selected areas, while moving to EVDO Rev B for the other parts of the country.

The study says that the important aspect to keep in mind is that Verizon is apparently not going to throw away its 3G network and go with LTE (News - Alert) completely. Verizon will try to get as many customers on each infrastructure as possible. They will use LTE to target high-end customers and then the 3G network will be employed as supplement.

Calvin Azuri is a contributing editor for TMCnet. To read more of Calvin’s articles, please visit his columnist page.

Edited by Jennifer Russell

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